Tracking the Tropics: Impending Tropical Storm Debby Likely to Bring Flooding and Heavy Rain to the Carolinas
Increasing Concerns Over Impending Tropical Storm
The developing tropical system, currently known as PTC #4, is expected to transform into Tropical Depression Four and soon after, likely named Tropical Storm Debby. Upon reaching the Gulf of Mexico later today, this prediction is set to confirm. The easy-to-navigate low wind shear environment along with warmer ocean temperatures prevalent in the Gulf provide a suitable setting for the development of this storm.
Florida’s Gulf Coast Prepares for Impact
Presently, the Gulf Coast of Florida has been equipped with tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches, bracing for the imminent storm. It is foreseen that storm surge will rise between 3-5 feet from Aucilla River to Chassahowitzka located in Florida’s Big Bend, with the onset of tropical storm-force winds beginning this afternoon.
Crossing Florida Peninsula: Varied Potential Routes
As Tropical Storm Debby is projected to cross over the Florida peninsula, the line of forecast becomes varied and broad reflecting a degree of uncertainty. A westward trajectory would direct the center of circulation through the centre and northern regions of South Carolina. Alternatively, a central route would guide Debby upwards along the East Coast, however, a further eastern route could distance the system 300 miles offshore. Currently, the parallel running along the Carolina coast seems to pose the most likely path.
Storm Induced Potential Hazards
Major impacts from the tropical storm will be experienced along the Grand Strand by Wednesday with some issues beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall and high winds may have a prolonged effect that could extend into Thursday. A concern has been raised that this storm may stall, enhancing the threat of flooding and coastal damage. This challenge is heightened with the most recommended track suggesting the storm riding up the coast.
Predicted Wind Speeds and Expected Rainfall
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the Grand Strand under a 40% risk of flash flooding over the next 5 days. This is considered a high-risk situation. The rainfall forecast is presently predicting 8-12 inches over the next week, but primarily from the impending tropical storm. Increased wave heights are expected due to a stalled low-pressure area offshore; this could trigger rip currents which may last several days. In the event of the storm lingering, significant beach erosion could be noticeable.
An Uncertain Outlook
Tropical Storm Debby’s course is not guaranteed, the most likely track is paralleling the coast. Nevertheless, emergency plans are being drawn up to prepare for possible different scenarios. The one certainty is that all residents and visitors in the potential path of this storm need to closely monitor its developments and heed local advisories to protect their lives and property.
