TRACKING THE TROPICS: Debby Expected to Stall and Bring Catastrophic Flooding to the Carolinas

The tropical storm widely known as Debby has significantly gained momentum over the past few days and is now projected to escalate into a hurricane before making its expected landfall near Tallahassee, Florida, by Monday. Debby’s current wind speed clocks at 65 mph, moving due north at a decreased speed of 12 mph since yesterday.

Likely Catastrophic Impacts

As per the latest predictions, Debby is expected to decelerate substantially within the next 24-48 hours, posing significant threats of prodigious rainfall and subsequent catastrophic flooding. Areas along the coastal regions will also witness storm surge and coastal flooding, but the impact of the excessive rainfall remains the most ominous.

Nearly all of the Gulf Coast in Florida is currently under tropical alerts, with hurricane warnings issued for counties along the ‘Big Bend’ and even extending inland to Southern Georgia.

Potential Threat to the Carolinas

There is a foreseen grave risk of storm surge along Florida’s Gulf Coast, with surges expected to reach 6-10 feet between the Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River, located in Florida’s ‘Big Bend’. Parts of South Carolina are under storm surge warning, with an expected surge of 2-4 feet.

Model Predictions and possible scenarios

The model predictions may not be in complete agreement, but they all align on one likelihood—the stalling of Debby just South of the Grand Strand. This event will lead to incessant rainfall, onshore flow that, if prolonged, will culminate in coastal flooding, enfeebling storm surge, and devastating beach erosion.

The outer bands of rain are predicted to arrive along the Grand Strand by tomorrow afternoon, with the most significant impacts of persistent heavy rain and wind speeds above 30 mph extending from Tuesday through Thursday, possibly even until Saturday.

High Risk of Flooding

The Weather Prediction Center has classified the Grand Strand under a 15% risk of flash flooding tomorrow, which escalates to a nearly 70% chance by Tuesday.

The estimated rainfall is reckoned to be within the spectrum of 7-15 inches—an equivalent to the conditions created during Hurricane Matthew—threatening to tip numerous river currents into moderate to major flood stage even after the storm has ended.

Preparedness and Evacuation

At this time, no active tropical alerts have been issued for the Grand Strand, with the storm surge warning active from Charleston County, extending southward. Residents have been strongly advised to follow necessary precautions, stay updated with the latest reports and comply with local authorities’ instructions concerning evacuation and seeking secure shelters.

For those living in the projected path of this tropical storm, the next few days might be challenging and filled with uncertainty. Preparedness and adherence to safety guidelines will be crucial in weathering this storm.